Could Wikileaks cause World War III or the end of the world?

Special Report: Could Wikileaks cause World War III or the end of the world?

By David Gewirtz | November 28, 2010, 11:29pm PST
Summary

Trust can be all that stands between us and terrible circumstance, whether that’s the breakup of a family or total, nuclear Armageddon.
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Nation, Leader, Leadership, Management, David Gewirtz
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David Gewirtz

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David Gewirtz
David Gewirtz
As a child, David Gewirtz discovered he was a geek sometime during the middle of the Johnson administration. He is the author of How To Save Jobs: Reinventing Business, Reinvigorating Work, and Reawakening the American Dream and Where Have All The Emails Gone? How Something as Seemingly Benign as White House Email Can Have Freaky National Security Consequences.

He is the executive director of the U.S. Strategic Perspective Institute, founder of the ZATZ technical magazines, a CNN contributor, and the cyberterrorism advisor for the International Association for Counterterrorism and Security Professionals.
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Trust.

It’s a simple, one syllable word. If you think about it, trust is all that stands between us and terrible circumstance, whether that’s the breakup of a family or total, nuclear Armageddon.

Trust is vitally important to the operations of nations and governments, as well. Not everyone, for example, is entrusted with America’s nuclear codes. Not everyone is entrusted with the command of virtually independent nuclear ballistic missile submarines. And not everyone is entrusted with secret government documents.

For many things, trust has to be selective. It’s not a good idea, as an example, to put controlling nuclear weapons on the honor system. My friends worry enough when I get around a good fireworks store or wax poetic about plasma torches — they wouldn’t feel comfortable if I had nukes.

Yet, we have to trust some people. It’s not possible to do everything yourself. Working parents must trust someone to watch their newborn. Bosses who can’t do everything themselves, or be in multiple places at once must put some trust in their employees.

Because the United States is a large nation with many interests all over the world, our military and diplomatic leadership must put some trust into the lower-level men and women who move and analyze tremendous amounts of information the world over. Even if they’re only 22.

And so it came to be that the great nation of the United States of America entrusted Bradley Manning — a young Private First Class of the U.S. 10th Mountain Division in Iraq, a former school dropout and pizza greeter — with handling message traffic considered confidential and not for foreign eyes.

While most American soldiers are more than worthy of our trust, respect, and thanks, young Bradley was not. Manning, without any formal training or education in geopolitical affairs, without the ability to see all the national security ramifications, and without the ability to understand (or possibly even care) about the lives that would inevitably be lost, took it upon himself to betray the sacred trust granted him by the United States military.

There are always people willing to take advantage of naive young people in positions of trust. So it came to pass that Manning’s betrayal had an outlet, in the person of an ambitious foreign narcissist named Julian Assange, a man so amoral he tried to blackmail Amnesty International.

But naivety and audience can’t act alone.

There must also be opportunity. Beyond the need to entrust our diplomatic security to 22-year-old dropouts — we have another serious security flaw. We allow removable media, iPods, smartphones, and thumb drives behind the firewall.

I have been banging on this drum for years now. Over and over, I have told politicians, military leaders, homeland security professionals*, and the American people that these tiny handheld devices pose a tremendous security risk.

For a while, it seemed like the Pentagon, at least, was going to take some action. They put a ban on USB drives in the military. But then, after only a year, they substantially reduced the ban’s effectiveness.

I’m telling you this because, according to The Guardian, Manning stole more than 250,000 confidential diplomatic cables (all of 1.6 gigabytes of data) by smuggling a thumb drive and a re-writable CD labeled “Lady Gaga” into work, filled them, and then forwarded them to a waiting Assange.

While it’s not clear whether or not Manning’s betrayal could have been prevented by better security procedures, it certainly could have been made more difficult. Even so, now we’re left with the fallout.

I’m not going to recount the sordid details of what was contained in those not-for-foreign-eyes diplomatic cables. First, I don’t believe they should be public and, second, many other publications, including The New York Times, are publishing the leaks.

I’m also not going to tell you that nothing contained in those cables was disturbing. Instead, I’ll tell you why we (and every other nation) keep some information to ourselves, or release information only in carefully controlled circumstances.

International diplomacy is a precise dance.

Although some nations are vastly larger and vastly wealthier than others, it is a facade of diplomatic protocol that all nations and all leaders are treated as equals — at least in public. Many nations (and the U.S., in particular) maintain protocol offices to make sure that every diplomatic interaction goes according to plan, stays on message, and doesn’t offend (unless, of course, it’s time to not be nice).

Internal national politics, on the other hand, is a gutter fight.

Nations must communicate with other nations according to an established protocol, but the leaders who make that national policy must always answer to their constituents. If the leaders can’t seem to maintain an upper hand, can’t demand respect, and aren’t seen to be getting things done, those leaders are usually replaced.

The challenge is that diplomacy is always a give-and-take sort of thing. When nations bargain with other nations, sometimes it goes smoothly, sometimes there’s horse-trading, and sometimes there’s pressure to be applied. Whenever two leaders negotiate, each wants to come back to his or her country and brag about how he won the negotiation. Neither wants to lose face.

As we all know, people will do incredibly idiotic things to protect their honor. So will leaders.

I’ve written previously about how the documents leaked by Wikileaks could cause people to die. Wikileaks hasn’t redacted the information about confidential informants, and it’s likely that these informants — in large numbers — will be executed by their factions over the coming weeks and months.

That’s bad enough. But many national leaders would prefer to project bravado, send people to war, and engage in years-long conflicts with other nations rather than lose face or admit a mistake.

Here is where the Wikileaks risk is extreme. Manning and Assange “outed” confidential negotiations (and, yes, pressure) about nuclear defense issues. They “outed” defensive tactics America was taking against cyberwarfare advances by certain other nations. They “outed” the procedures we’re going through to find “homes” for Guantanamo prisoners. They “outed” discussions about protecting Americans from terrorists.

Each of these disclosures will likely cause leaders to do damage control. Because diplomacy always involves more than one player, the damage control will be different from nation to nation. Nations that were in some level of agreement (whether coerced or not) will now find that, for political reasons, they must agree to not agree.

For some nations, the fact that this information is now public will prevent them from being able to compromise. For some nations, the fact that this information is now public will prevent them from being able to trust.

Trust.

If you think about it, trust can be all that stands between us and terrible circumstance, whether that’s the breakup of a family or total, nuclear Armageddon.

Read also:

* November 10: Friends of Wikileaks’ traitor Manning whine about government investigation. Well, duh.
* October 25: Is Wikileaks Julian Assange worse than Osama Bin Laden?
* August 21: Nutball Wikileaks founder tries to blackmail Amnesty International
* August 3: Should America tolerate Wikileaks or destroy it like any other national security threat?
* June 21: Revisiting Wikileaks/Lamo and why antiwar fascists suck
* June 14: Adrian Lamo, Wikileaks, and what it means to be a patriot

*Sadly, some of these articles are in print, only.

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As a child, David Gewirtz discovered he was a geek sometime during the middle of the Johnson administration.

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David Gewirtz

At various times during his adult life, David has voted for both Democrats and Republicans, and has been disappointed by both. He is deeply disturbed by how partisanship has come before patriotism in America, which gives him the freedom to pick on both sides.

David is a frequent guest on TV and radio stations across America and can usually be heard or seen on-the-air at least once a week. He writes weekly commentary and analysis for CNN’s Anderson Cooper 360 and has been interviewed by Fox News, CNN, various ABC and NBC affiliates, and Canada’s Global TV. He has been a featured guest on National Public Radio and has also been featured on Voice of America, Radio Free Europe, and Radio Liberty where his commentaries on technology, industry, and emerging nations have been broadcast into 46 countries (all in their own unique translations).

David is the executive director of U.S. Strategic Perspective Institute, a nonprofit research and policy organization. He is the Cyberterrorism Advisor for the International Association for Counterterrorism & Security Professionals, a columnist for The Journal of Counterterrorism and Homeland Security and a special contributor to Frontline Security Magazine. He is a member of the FBI’s InfraGard program, the security partnership between the FBI and industry. David is also a member of the U.S. Naval Institute and the National Defense Industrial Association, the leading defense industry association promoting national security.

David is an advisory board member for the Technical Communications and Management Certificate program at the University of California, Berkeley extension. He is also a member of the instructional faculty at the University of California, Berkeley extension.

David’s “day job” is as publisher and editor-in-chief of ZATZ publishing, an online publisher of technical magazines. Other than than his ownership stake in Component Enterprises, Inc. (the parent company of ZATZ), David has no additional industry investments.

ZATZ has many advertisers who do, in part, provide for David’s lush income and extravagant lifestyle. Most of them are IBM and Lotus aftermarket suppliers, some of them make goodies for Microsoft Outlook, and a few make all sorts of strange mobile devices and add-on products. David has been a regular judge of the IBM Awards, but has no formal financial interest in or with IBM.

Because the ZATZ online magazines often review products, David and ZATZ are sent an overwhelming stream of unsolicited, silly, and often useless products to review. Because they’re such a pain to track and ship back, these products often wind up in a dumpster or fill up the corner of a large closet. Although David has no plans to review products in connection to his ZDNet blog, if he does do a product review, he will disclose any relationship completely in that posting.

Both through ZATZ and independently, David derives a small income through various advertising and sales relationships with Amazon.com and Google. These are minor relationships and they will not impede his willingness or ability to chastise either company should they deserve it.

David has many other business relationships, but none of them relate to anything he covers in his ZDNet blog. David does have a bit of the sales-guy bug and if he’s not doing a sales deal with someone at least once a month, he goes through withdrawal. He has a number of consulting clients, but none of them relate to anything he covers for ZDNet (and if they ever do, he will either disclose that fact, or decline to write about them).

Back in the 1980s, David held the unusual title of “Godfather” at Apple. He has written and published 40 incredibly simplistic applications for Apple’s iPhone.

Although David is forbidden to disclose the terms of his iPhone developer agreement, he isn’t drinking the Apple Kool Aid, will never be confused with a metrosexual, and feels free to mock Apple, and Apple users, any time the occasion permits, on alternate Tuesdays, or if he’s bored.
Biography
David Gewirtz
As a child, David Gewirtz discovered he was a geek sometime during the middle of the Johnson administration. He is the author of How To Save Jobs: Reinventing Business, Reinvigorating Work, and Reawakening the American Dream and Where Have All The Emails Gone? How Something as Seemingly Benign as White House Email Can Have Freaky National Security Consequences.

He is the executive director of the U.S. Strategic Perspective Institute, founder of the ZATZ technical magazines, a CNN contributor, and the cyberterrorism advisor for the International Association for Counterterrorism and Security Professionals.
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